ANALYSIS: Deeper dive into the early UM vs. Texas A&M betting line
The first way-too-early betting line for Miami's third game of the season at Texas A&M is out.
Per FanDuel, UM is a nine-point underdog.
Considering most consider this will be Miami's toughest game, that's not too bad, right? And maybe that's about where the line should be ... if you believe Texas A&M is overrated by those picking the Aggies as a top 5 team, and if you believe Miami will be better with the new coaching staff and the transfer additions.
This is also worth considering, when looking at that betting line:
A recent headline from saturdaydownsouth.com reads "Here's why Texas A&M will be the most overrated team in the country entering 2022."
That article pointed to a lot of the team's buzz coming from the stellar freshman class ... but pointed out that first-year players typically aren't going to be ready to make a massive impact. It also points to programs like UF, LSU, Notre Dame, Oregon, Oklahoma and USC getting new head coaches, which can create some uncertainty with those typically ranked programs, as well as Clemson having its worst season in seven years and losing its top assistants.
Hence, the rise up the preseason rankings for a team like A&M, which has some key pieces back and new talent in but still hasn't finished with consecutive top 15 seasons since 1994-95.
Certainly as you look at roster talent, there's a gap even after the Aggies lost eight players in the first four rounds of the last two NFL Drafts.
This year that included first-round OL Kenyon Green, third-round DL DeMarvin Leal and fourth-round DE Michael Clemons and RB Isaiah Spiller (1,011 rush yards) in the 2022 draft. The team also has to replace TE Jalen Wydermyer (515 yards) and several more pieces on defense.
Also remember that this is the team that upended No. 1 Alabama last season, 41-38, and beat Auburn, 20-3. But there was inconsistency - in part due to injuries - and the team lost to Arkansas, Mississippi State, Mississippi and LSU to finish 8-4.
While the Canes certainly have plenty of talent, Texas A&M likewise has that and College Football News has labeled this "Jimbo Fisher's Best team yet" and predicted a 5-0 start ... yes, that incudes the Canes in Game 3.
A closer look at what UM is up against in this one:
In addition to returning talent, this is a team that had a 2022 recruiting class many call one of the best in memory. By some counts the 30-player class had eight 5-stars. There were 12 signees in the Rivals100, including No. 2-rated DT Walter Nolen.
As for returning talent?
On offense the team returns Haynes King, who started the first two games last year before a season-ending injury, and Max Johnson transferred in after throwing 27 TDs with six INTs at LSU. At running back Devon Achane is expected to be the lead back, and he's got breakaway speed. He was the No. 2 option last season and had 910 rush yards and 261 receiving yards along with 10 total TDs. The team took a portal hit at receiver, with Demond Demas (235 yards, TD) and Caleb Chapman (210 yards) transferring, and returners include slot receiver/RB Ainias Smith (team high 47 catches, 509 yards, 6 TDs) and Chase Lane (132 yards). At TE, with Wydermyer gone, Max Wright (3 catches, 23 yards) is a returner who is a decent all-around player but not a downfield threat. And the O line returns center Bryce Foster (12 starts), OT Rueben Fatheree (9 starts) and RG Layden Robinson (10 starts).
On the other side of the ball?
The defense has a lot to replace, and last year the group averaged allowing just 15.9 points and 327.5 yards per game (134.8 rushing). The big personnel losses include almost the entire front 7. Gone are Clemons (11 TFL, 7 sacks), Leal (12.5 TFL, 8.5 sacks), DL Jayden Peavy (6 TFL, 2 sacks), DL Tyree Johnson (9 TFL, 8.5 sacks) and LB Aaron Hansford (team high 89 tackles, 8.5 TFL, 2 sacks). Plus the team will miss DB Leon O'Neal (58 tackles, 2 INT). Another big loss? Defensive coordinator Mike Elko headed to Duke, and now calling the plays is D.J. Durkin.
But folks in College Station think this defense won't skip a beat.
Up front at end former 5-star Tunmise Adeleye is expected to have a big season after redshirting as a freshman, and on the other side Fadil Diggs is talented and played in every game off the bench last year as a redshirt freshman. Inside, McKinnely Jackson (14 tackles, sack) and Shemar Turner (14 tackles, 1.5 sacks) are expected to have big roles. And Adarious Jones (12 tackles, 1 start) could push to start. At linebacker Andre White (57 tackles, sack) is back after starting nine games last season, and WILL Edgerrin Cooper (58 tackles, 5.5 TFL) is looking to build on a decent 2021 campaign. And the secondary should be one of the nation's best and deepest units. It's led by safety Demani Richardson (65 tackles, 6.5 TFL, 2 sacks, INT) and nickel Antonio Johnson (79 tackles, 8.5 TFL, sack, INT), who is expected to be high NFL pick. Plus safety Jardin Gilbert (14 tackles) is someone coaches feel can break out. And corners Myles Jones (8 starts in 2020 and 13 in 2019 before missing almost all of last year due to injury) and Jaylon Jones (returning starter had 35 tackles, 2 INTs) will also have roles along with Tyreek Chappell (41 tackles, 3 TFL, team high 9 PBU).
On special teams Texas A&M has one of the nation's best punters in Nik Constantinou - he averaged 46.6 yards per attempt with 22 of 51 inside the 20. And PK Caden Davis ranked 10th in touchback percentage last year on kickoffs and will get his first chance to handle field goals with Seth Small gone.
Now add in all the 5-star recruiting pieces, and you can see why virtually all preseason publications have this team in the top 10.
But there's a reason for that -9 line.
The Canes probably have edges over Texas A&M at QB and TE, and are at least even at WR and perhaps on the D line if the transfers pan out. The Cane secondary should also be excellent. So there perhaps isn't as huge a gap as some think.
But also keep in mind this will be the Canes' first game on the road.
With a pretty much all-new coaching staff.
A lot of transfers that are working to fit in with returners.
This will be the first test of the season for Cristobal and the team.
Still, this is a Texas A&M team that had some hiccups last season despite also having the talent level to beat a 'Bama.
So if the Canes can be competitive and remain close into the fourth quarter, anything can happen.
The bottom line?
As the old saying goes, "So you're saying there's a chance?"
Yes.
But it will be a major challenge against the team we think is the most talented the Canes will face.