Analysis has only one team on schedule that ... on paper ... should beat UM
In a perfect world the Miami Hurricanes won’t need any excuses this coming season.
And, at least per an ESPN analysis, there shouldn’t need to be any.
Per the network’s metrics, only one opponent on the schedule has a higher power index. That would be, of course, top-ranked Alabama in the opener.
On paper UM should run the table after that.
But that’s on paper.
And it’s not to say some opponents aren’t close, especially with Miami clocking in at the No. 19 toughest schedule.
Overall the Canes are ranked No. 10 with a projected win-loss total of 8.9-3.5. So a 9-3 season is what the projection is even with only one team ranked higher.
The percent chance of six wins or more stands at 98.9 for UM. But the bad news per the metrics is the Canes have just a 10 percent chance of winning the conference and 6.3 percent chance of making the playoffs. Clemson’s the heavy favorite, of course. The percent chance Miami is hoisting the championship trophy in January? 0.6 percent.
Clemson (ranked No. 2) has an 80.8 percent chance of winning the conference and 28 percent chance of winning the national title; UNC is the only other highly relevant ACC team at No. 14 - the Tar Heels are given a 5.4 percent chance of winning the conference and 0.2 percent chance of winning the national title.
So, at least per ESPN’s metrics, Miami is the ACC’s second-best team, and UM doesn’t face Clemson during the regular season.
Here’s the opponent breakdown per ESPN:
ALABAMA
No. 1, projected 11.1-1.6 record; 49.8 percent chance of winning conference
APPALACHIAN STATE
No. 33, projected 9.4-3.2 record; 39.1 percent chance of winning conference
MICHIGAN STATE
No. 45, projected 5.9-6.1 record; 0.3 percent chance of winning conference
CENTRAL CONNECTICUT STATE
Not in rankings/FCS team
VIRGINIA
No. 37, projected 6.5-5.6 record; 0.5 percent chance of winning conference
NORTH CAROLINA
No. 14, projected 8.6-3.7 record; 5.4 percent chance of winning conference
NC STATE
No. 41, projected 6.5-5.5 record; 0.3 percent chance of winning conference
PITTSBURGH
No. 32, projected 7.2-4.9 record; 0.7 percent chance of winning conference
GEORGIA TECH
No. 57, projected 4.8-7.2 record; 0.1 percent chance of winning conference
FLORIDA STATE
No. 44, projected 5.9-6.1 record; 0.2 percent chance of winning conference
VIRGINIA TECH
No. 26, projected 7.4-4.7 record; 1.3 percent chance of winning conference
DUKE
No. 82, projected 4.6-7.4 record; 0.0 percent chance of winning conference