CanesCounty - ANALYSIS: Van Dyke picked to go No. 12 in early Kiper draft projection
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ANALYSIS: Van Dyke picked to go No. 12 in early Kiper draft projection

We recently reported on the post-spring Heisman Trophy odds for the coming season by FoxBet, with Cane QB Tyler Van Dyke checking in at No. 6 with odds of +3000 (he was tied with Ole Miss' Jaxson Dart and trailed Alabama QB and reigning Heisman winner Bryce Young, Ohio State QB C.J. Stroud, USC QB Caleb Williams, Clemson QB D.J. Uiagalelei and Texas RB Bijan Robinson).

Today?

We get an early idea of how the NFL may view Van Dyke's talent level.

In Mel Kiper's way too early first round draft analysis, he picks Van Dyke going No. 12 overall. Van Dyke is the third QB going off Kiper's board, after Young and Stroud (who many think will be the top 2 picks).

Kiper writes that "Tyler Van Dyke at Miami. He's a kid who has a big strong arm, pocket passer who can beat you with his legs when he needs to, but he can make every throw. His accuracy overall, I thought was pretty good. Now he did have four games at 57% or worse. He needs to clean that up a little bit. He's gonna get better and better. I think Tyler Van Dyke as a pure passer could be as good as it gets, he could ascend from that 12 spot on the board, up into the top 10, maybe the top five."

The last time Miami had a first round quarterback?

That was all the way back in 1987 when Vinny Testaverde went first overall.

Your Van Dyke refresher:

He finished his 2021 redshirt freshman year starting 10 game after D'Eriq King's season-ending injury, and he had 25 TD passes and six INTs, averaging 293.1 yards passing. But over the last half dozen games (against Pitt, Georgia Tech, FSU, Virginia Tech and Duke) he threw 20 touchdowns with three interceptions. Extrapolate that to a 12-game regular season and you've got a 40-TD season.

Van Dyke will have to overcome the loss of his top two targets, Charleston Rambo and Mike Harley. With that said, the tight ends have a very strong room and the O line should be better. Plus the run game added transfer Henry Parrish and has Jaylan Knighton back ... and both are excellent receiving backs, which will help Van Dyke's stats. For Van Dyke to really impress, the team will need wideouts to step up like Xavier Restrepo, Jacolby George, Clemson transfer Frank Ladson, Key'Shawn Smith and Brashard Smith.

Also worth mentioning: Aside from Texas A&M, Clemson and Pitt, there are no defenses on the schedule that Van Dyke shouldn't be able to carve apart fairly easily. And the Pitt and Clemson secondaries were the weaker points of their defenses a year ago.

If you want a first round QB comparison, maybe you can go ahead and look at last year's Pitt game. Van Dyke outplayed Kenny Pickett, throwing for 426 yards with 3 TDs in that game. And Pickett wound up the No. 20 overall pick in this year's NFL Draft.

Another interesting aspect: Those that know Van Dyke best say he's a real student of the game. And you can see that in his progression from his first two real starts against Virginia (15-29, 203 yards, TD) and UNC (20-45, 264 yards, 0 TDs, 3 INTS) to the games that followed.

The bottom line?

Don't bet against Van Dyke being the first opening round QB pick for Miami in the last 35 years.