STATE OF THE U 2020: 2021 class analysis

STATE OF THE U: 2020 class analysis

STATE OF THE U: 2019 class analysis

STATE OF THE U: 2018 class analysis

STATE OF THE U: 2017 class analysis

STATE OF THE U: 2016 class analysis

OPINION: Diaz attacked problems and State of the U should benefit

STATE OF THE U: Where does program stand in college football landscape?

REVIEW THE CLASS OF 2021 COMMITMENTS HERE

We can look backward to determine the current State of the U. But just as importantly we can look forward.

And perhaps there's no better gauge on where things might be headed three, four and even five years down the road than the current recruiting class Manny Diaz & Co. are working to put together.

Is it too early to make calls on some recruits?

Of course, considering prospects decommit and many haven't made final decisions or even official and unofficial visits.

But, with that in mind, you can see from the below breakdown of current Cane targets that the glass is half full ... or half empty. How you see it depends on your desired viewpoint.

Miami could be in position to land somewhere around a top 10 haul again, and perhaps better if the team performs extremely well this season.

Or a poor season could throw the class into disarray.

There are top-rated national prospects like Plantation American Heritage defensive back James Williams and California-based quarterback Jake Garcia who appear to be warming up to the Canes and would significantly impact the team recruiting ranking. Winning this season might tip them over the edge and land them in Coral Gables.

But it also appears, from the way things are trending, that there will be some big misses from the Rivals250 in South Florida talent alone. And that unfortunately is a continuation of what we have seen in recent years, leading to 7-6 and 6-7 seasons the past two years.

Here's that list of names and rankings:

No. 18. WR Jacorey Brooks, Miami Booker T. Washington. Alabama commitment

No. 21. LB Terrence Lewis, Hollywood Chaminade-Madonna. Tennessee commitment (behavioral issues made Miami decide to stop recruiting him)

No. 121. OL Marcus Tate, Ft. Lauderdale University School. Clemson commitment

No. 124. WR Troy Stellato, Ft. Lauderdale Cardinal Gibbons. Clemson commitment

No. 127. WR Bralon Brown, Hollywood Chaminade-Madonna. Mississippi commitment

No. 135. LB Dallas Turner, Ft. Lauderdale St. Thomas Aquinas. Miami not in top group, expected to pick Georgia or Alabama.

It also wouldn't be surprising if the following area recruits that have UM in their picture wind up elsewhere:

No. 17 DB Corey Collier, Miami Palmetto - UM in top 6 but many expect him to go to Florida.

No. 19 DE Tyreak Sapp, Ft. Lauderdale St. Thomas Aquinas - Florida commit UM has chased

No. 20 S James Williams, Plantation American Heritage - has been considered a Georgia lean, but he did recently put Miami in his top two and the Hurricanes can't be counted out.

No. 63 ATH Jason Marshall, Miami Palmetto - considered a Florida lean.

No. 116 DT Leonard Taylor, Miami Palmetto - considered a Florida lean, but perhaps the most likely of the available top Palmetto talent that could wind up at UM

No. 169 ATH Yulkeith Brown, Miami Central - Canes in top 7, but hasn't been pursued as hard by UM as others

No. 231 RB Amari Daniels, Miami Central - considered a Texas A&M lean, but Miami is working hard to change that.

Add it up and that's a staggering 13 South Florida players in the Rivals250 that either aren't considering UM or are considered to be leaning elsewhere right now. If the rankings are right or even close to right, that's the potential foundation of an ACC title contender or even more than that which might be slipping away.

It's a continued unsustainable result if you want to see Miami get back to greatness, especially when you consider the Canes aren't at the point right now where they can consistently compete out of state for five-star and high four-star rated prospects.

This year South Florida is loaded even more than usual, and the area produces more pro talent than any other in the United States. But imagine The U of the past without guys like Michael Irvin and Andre Johnson and Willis McGahee and Jon Beason and Dan Morgan and Alonzo Highsmith and Melvin Bratton and ................

For things to have any chance to improve, the Hurricanes will have to put wins on their resume ... and start getting more guys in the first round of the NFL Draft, something that should happen next spring with defensive end Greg Rousseau.

You can see some of the headwinds UM faces just by looking at this year's QB and DL chases.

At quarterback?

It was just back in March that the Canes were hoping to land a quarterback from a then-uncommitted group of Aaron McLaughlin (NC State commit), Miller Moss (USC commit) and Garrett Nussmeier (LSU commit). Others UM went after with Rhett Lashlee when they were uncommitted were Dematrius Davis (Auburn commit) and Preston Stone (SMU commit). The Hurricanes have returned to putting the full court press on Jake Garcia, who remains a USC commit even with Moss committing; but has been in regular communication with Lashlee. Due to the Moss commit, there is a chance that Garcia could be convinced to switch to Miami. Another still on the list is Texas commit Jalen Milroe;.

The defensive line has done very well under Manny Diaz and has a projected high first-round pick in Rousseau. But like QB, this position is struggling in 2021 recruiting and has a wide net cast.

Right now the team has two line commits: Savion Collins and Allan Haye (Tyler Johnson is listed as a DL but is more likely to play LB or even striker/safety). Plus it's widely expected that Collins will wind up at Florida, and Haye is not considered a top-of-the-line prospects with a tremendous amount of major offers.

So where does that leave UM?

Well the staff is expected to land Jabari Ishmael, a solid prospect whose father is a long-time assistant weight room coach at Miami. It is almost unimaginable that Ismael would not go to Miami.

But there's no one else on the current target list below that you would point to and say "Oh, he's coming."

The highest priority defensive line guys in terms of national rankings that UM is after?

George Rooks is considered a Michigan lean, Tyreak Sapp is a UF commit and Leonard Taylor is considered a Florida lean, though Miami is believed to be making up ground there.

So what is the most solid part of the class right now?

In our estimation, it is the wide receiver position, where the Canes are in good shape to land one of the nation's most talented groups, and also tight end with a pair of talented commits.

We like the linebacker commits -- Ja'Corey Hammett, Deshawn Troutman and Tyler Johnson -- even though they are 3-star guys. And underrated Georgia product Thomas Davis is looking like he will soon jump on board too as a DE/OLB.

But you go down the line and there are still areas of concern even outside of the aforementioned QB and DL issues.

Will RB Thaddius Franklin stick? He plans to take several visits and says he's a soft commitment.

Is the O line class good enough? There are three commits right now, but only Laurence Seymore was truly chased by multiple top programs.

At DB there are a pair of three-star commits, but this is a position that really needs to hit a home run this class given the upcoming depth issues the program will face.

Look down the list here and aside from Kamren Kinchens (announcing July 11 and expected to be a Cane) who do you see that can be considered a UM lean right now?

There's a lot of time left to make this a strong class, but as we said this can be looked at as a glass half-full or half-empty scenario right now depending on your chosen viewpoint.

“All you can do is look at the numbers, right,” Diaz said recently on WQAM. “I think whatever amount of commits we have I think everyone of them except three or four are from Dade and Broward and two of the three that aren’t from Dade or Broward lived in Dade and Broward when they were young, so facts are facts, right? And we’re not done.

"We’re still a long way from Signing Day, but we’re not done. Look, we said this over and over again. We’re always going to start at home and then, like I said, I think we’re making great progress.”

So, without further ado, here's a closer look at the State of the U as it pertains player by player to this year's recruiting class:

The Canes via former offensive coordinator Dan Enos chased Garcia hard before he picked USC, and the 4-star paid his own way for a pair of unofficial Miami visits before making the decision. With Miller Moss committing to USC, Garcia still remains on board. Rhett Lashlee is talking to him and there is growing belief that Garcia can be swayed. A big offensive season would help a lot.

Milroe is talking with the Canes, but is committed to Texas and considered a longshot.

It's been an up-and-down UM recruitment for Daniels, with coaches going hot and cold on his trail. But the Canes are now on him and have a shot. His favorites are UM, Texas A&M, Penn State, Georgia and Nebraska. Texas A&M supposedly leads.

Franklin is committed but says he wants to take all his visits and Penn State in particular is pushing hard. This one could cause a lot of hair-pulling when the fall comes and recruiting kicks back into gear.

A backup plan, Geter has heard from the Canes at different points and remains a possibility if UM strikes out with Daniels and Franklin goes elsewhere.

At one point Alexis was favoring Miami strongly, but now Texas has pulled even or ahead and when he visits there it will really determine the Canes' chances.

He committed to Miami June 13 over Texas A&M, UGA, LSU, and Auburn. Brinson has enormous talent and could turn out to be one of the best catches of the recruiting class.

George is a solid Cane commitment.

If the Canes want Nabers, there's a decent shot ... unless LSU offers.

If some of the four-star talent falls through, there's a chance with Raines, who likes the Canes.

A former Gator commitment, Smith has a top five of UM, UF, Auburn, Tennessee and Oregon. This one could go in any direction.

Arroyo is a solid commitment. He's an impressive looking athlete whose stock should continue to rise as his senior season progresses.

Brantley is a long-time solid commitment.

McLaughlin is a solid commitment. He's a diamond in the rough with the frame to grow into a solid offensive lineman.

Rodriguez is a solid commitment and underrated center prospect.

Rosas has talked with Cane coaches, and there's a chance here if UM goes after him hard.

Seymore says he is solid but wants to visit Georgia, FSU and LSU ... and may take other visits too. But with his younger brother also committed in the Class of 2023 you have to think he sticks in the end.

Yes he's committed, but many expect him to flip to Florida at some point.

The Canes are chasing this former Mississippi State commit, and we consider it a high probability that he lands in the class. He plans to formally announce his decision on his birthday Aug. 24.

Haye is a solid commitment.

Ishmael is playing things close to the vest, but we feel good about the chance he winds up at Miami, where his father is a long-time assistant strength coach.

At one point the Canes were in a good spot here; no longer. He's considered a longshot with Alabama, Clemson, Georgia, Florida, Auburn, Oregon and LSU out front.

Miami's in the mix but we consider him a longshot.

A soft Gator commitment, Sapp is still open to Miami and others. For now we think it's unlikely he comes.

This is a huge priority recruit, and there's a shot here. Others in it include Florida, Georgia, LSU, Auburn and Tennessee. UF is considered the leader right now, but at times there has been some chatter that he would not mind staying home. So we'll see which way this one goes.

A Gator commit UM is after, we consider Thomas a longshot. He doesn't rule out a visit and has been talking regularly with Cane coaches, but says he's pretty solid with UF.

Hammett is a solid commitment.

Miami pushed hard for Hood but lost out to Michigan. The Canes aren't giving up though, and this one may not be over.

Johnson is a solid Cane commitment whose older brother is Jaquan Johnson. While Rivals lists him at DE it's expected he will play LB or even STR/safety.

More of a backup plan, we think Sagar comes in the class if UM really wants him. He could play LB or DE.

Troutman is a solid Cane commitment.

While UM is after Arnold, many think he will wind up at either Alabama or Florida State. He plans to play in college with buddy Xavien Sorey, who says he doesn't have the Canes high in his picture. So that could be an issue.

A longshot (supposedly an Auburn-UF battle), the Canes are talking to him.

Burns is a solid commitment.

The Canes are in the mix and he wants to visit UM - that will go a long way toward determining Miami's chances.

A huge priority, UM is in Collier's top 6 with UF, FSU, LSU, Clemson and Georgia. He says he wants to see wins to help Miami's chances, so we'll see how that goes. Right now, Florida is believed to be the leader.

Curtis is a solid commitment.

The Canes are in the mix here, and he could be a suitable Plan B guy if things fall apart with others.

The Canes are pushing, but Alabama's considered the leader here.

An April offer, Gonzales is keeping things open right now.

He is likely to commit July 11 to Miami over Auburn, with others in it LSU, Texas A&M and Nebraska. He'd be a big piece of this class.

Smith, whose dad is former Cane Willie Smith, has a long way to go before being ready to announce a commitment, but there is a lot of optimism he will pick Miami. He’ll probably announce a commitment this fall after he’s able to visit schools like Auburn, Georgia and Oklahoma.

He has been considered a strong lean to Georgia for many months. But Williams recently said Miami was in his top two with the Bulldogs, so anything can still happen. Maybe Ed Reed can help work some magic here.

Brown (a WR/RB prospect) has a top 7 of Miami, LSU, Penn State, Alabama, Nebraska, Texas A&M, LSU and Georgia. Miami's had a hot-and-cold recruiting chase with him to this point, so we'll see if UM pursues him hard moving forward. There's a chance here.

UM, UF, FSU, Alabama, LSU, Georgia and Clemson are the main contenders for this high priority target, and Florida supposedly leads.

Borregales is a solid commitment whose brother, Jose, will kick for UM this year as a grad transfer from FIU.

The bottom line when you crunch all of the above?

Miami is getting very good players, but many of the best from South Florida continue to get away.

Long term, for UM to truly return to greatness, that has to stop.

Winning will help.

A lot.

But the biggest problem here is the current recruits Miami's targeting weren't alive when the program was competing for national titles. They don't remember the greatness, the feeling of watching the hometown team dominate, the downtown parades honoring the local heroes.

Heck, the last time UM won more than 10 games was 2003. Players in the Class of 2021 weren't even born yet. And there's only been one double-digit winning season since.

It's a monumental task, and Manny Diaz & Co. must start on the road to championships by developing the talent they have, finding a way to win and then building that into convincing the top talent to stay home.

UM also must add some key 4 and 5 star pieces from out of the area as it has done when the program was on a roll.

That's the long-term formula to success.

Will it happen?

Time will tell.