Published Oct 28, 2022
Five Keys to a Miami Victory at Virginia
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Frank Tucker  •  CanesCounty
Recruiting Analyst
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Despite one of the more disappointing seasons in recent memory and coming off yet another loss to Duke, Miami is once again a favorite heading into an ACC showdown with Virginia. Miami will look to once again get back to .500 on the season and in conference play.

Here are the five keys to Miami getting back in the win column:

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Force Feed Emerging Star Wide Receiver Colbie Young

Colbie Young is the bright spot of the 2022 season. Since emerging at the end of the North Carolina game, he has two 100-yard games, jumping up to second on the team in receiving yards and first in touchdowns. Despite that elite level of production, Young did not see double-digit targets in a game where Miami quarterbacks threw the ball nearly 40 times.

Young should see at least 25 percent of the team targets and approach 15+ against Virginia. The JUCO transfer is a 6'5" 215-pound outside force no matter who is throwing him the football. Young has game-breaking ability that nobody in this offense possesses at this time. Miami failed to find any success with big plays until Young was unleashed and projected starter Jake Garcia is a gunslinger who has a knack for creating big plays. Miami needs to feed the beast that has been the lone sign of life in the last three games.

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Push for 18+ Carries for Running Back Henry Parrish

Starting running back Henry Parrish is back and fully healthy, showing that he is the same player we saw at the start of the year when he averaged 5.7 yards per carry against Duke. Miami was down for most of that game, so he saw just 11 carries for the second consecutive week. In games where Parrish receives 16 or more carries, he averages over 100 yards and a touchdown per game. That is a production not seen since the mid-2010s.

Parrish may not be the red zone power back to help elevate Miami's offense but he can get drives going and help revitalize the play-action passing game with chunk runs. His ability to kick off a positive game script, and maximize yardage should not be undervalued.

The Canes have averaged over 372 yards passing over the last three games but still hover from 20 to 24 points per game. The gaudy passing numbers are great, but if Miami wants to finish its long drives, it will have to establish a run game. That means more touches for the former Miami Columbus (FL) standout.

Limit the Pass Drops of the Linebackers

Linebacker Corey Flagg Jr. came out this week and mentioned the fact that the linebackers were in heavy pass drops this week, allowing rushing lanes for athletic Duke quarterback Riley Leonard. Virginia's signal caller Brennan Armstrong has a very similar profile to Leonard, in the fact that he is one of the top rushers on his team.

Unless players like Wesley Bissainthe, Chase Smith, Gilbert Frierson, or James Williams are on the field at linebacker, the second level does not have the athletic ability to get in their deep pass drops and then come up to play the run, especially when that player is a quarterback with the talent to make something happen on the ground.

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Limit Quarterback Runs

The extension to keeping the backers in the box is limiting the rushing of Armstrong. The Cavs QB is second on the team in rushing and if Virginia's coaches took note of the weakness of the Miami defense last week, it was the failure to stop Leonard whenever he ran in the red zone.

Leonard rushed for three touchdowns and Armstrong could gash the defense just the same. He is coming off a 91-yard game and has rushed for a score three games in a row. It is great to get sack production, but as we saw with Manny Diaz, those stats are not the end-all-be-all, as sometimes exaggerated pass rush lanes open up scramble opportunities for the modern, athletic quarterback that litters the ACC.

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Cut Down on the Defensive Line Rotations

The snap counts for the defensive line look to be evening out. Ahkeem Mesidor had 48, defensive tackles Darrell Jackson and Leonard Taylor combined for 77 snaps as a tandem, and veteran pass rusher Jahfari Harvey had 36 of his own. But the issue is that there are several players receiving snaps who are not really contributing and seem to be just taking away from the best options along the Miami defensive front.

Elijah Roberts, Chantz Williams, and Jared Harrison-Hunte are receiving more snaps than they truly deserve, as all three graded out below 66.9 with two of them grabbing grades less than 60. The rushing success of recent quarterback opponents is not just on the linebackers - these linemen need to show they deserve the opportunity to be part of this fluid rotation.

If Miami can keep the core group of the defensive line on the field longer and longer, the chances of a win will be manifested on Saturday.

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