Sixth-ranked Miami needed comebacks in two straight weeks to stay undefeated. The Hurricanes are unsatisfied with its performance in conference play against Virginia Tech and Cal. On Saturday, Miami faces perhaps its most formidable opponent of the season in a road game against Louisville. The Hurricanes are 5-point favorites.
The focus against the Cardinals will be not to fall behind and give up big plays. Louisville has the 21st-ranked total offense and can make chunk plays; however, the Cardinals are inefficient on third down. Louisville ranks 68th in the country in third-down conversions, and Miami ranks 13th in third-down percentage defense. Getting off the field on the money down will be critical.
The Hurricanes boast the nation's best offense. It's tough to believe that Louisville, who ranks 71st in passing yards allowed, can stop Cam Ward and company from moving the chains. I'm assuming Louisville will dial up some pressure to make Ward uncomfortable. According to Pro Football Focus, the Cardinals have the 20th-ranked offense when putting pressure on the quarterback. PFF ranks Miami 38th in pass block.
On the flip side, Louisville ranks 71st in pass block, while Miami ranks 11th in pressure.
I think this will be a close game, not because I feel Louisville has the talent to match up with Miami, but because there are plenty of Miami natives on the Louisville team that will play with more juice to prove their worth to the hometown Hurricanes.
This could be another shootout for the Canes that comes down to the final drive, but I think a few late turnovers will be the difference for Miami to squeak out a win.
Official Prediction: Miami wins 28-27
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