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Published Oct 4, 2024
Miami vs. Cal Preview: By the numbers - statistical comparison
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Marcus Benjamin  •  CanesCounty
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DATE: Saturday, October 5, 2024

WHERE: Cal Memorial Stadium, Berkeley, CA

TIME/TV: 10:30 PM EST/ESPN

LIVE AUDIO: 560 WQAM

MIAMI: Official Site | Schedule | Roster | Stats | Twitter

CALIFORNIA: Official Site | Schedule | Roster | Stats | Twitter

The No. 8 ranked Miami Hurricanes (5-0, 1-0 ACC) will face unranked Cal (3-1, ACC 0-1) for the 5th time in school history. The series is tied at two.

Cal won the last matchup between the two schools. The Bears defeated the Hurricanes 24-17 in the Emerald Bowl in 2008. The last time Miami visited Cal was in 1990 when the Hurricanes defeated the Bears 52-24.

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Storylines and Notables

Miami is off to a 5-0 start for the first time under head coach Mario Cristobal’s direction.

The Hurricanes defeated Virginia Tech in its first conference game last Friday by a score of 38-34.

Cal is hosting ESPN's College Gameday for the first time and removing its name from a short list of Power 4 schools that have never hosted (Illinois, Maryland, Rutgers, Syracuse, and Virginia). Miami will participate in a College Gameday game for the 25th time and the first time since October 10, 2020.

Miami was ranked No. 19 in both preseason polls and checked in at No. 8 in the Associated Press and LBM Coaches Poll on Sept. 29.

Miami has only started 5-0 four times since joining the ACC - 2004 (6-0), 2013 (7-0), 2017 (10-0) and 2024 (5-0).


Stats

Miami

QB Cam Ward became the first Hurricanes quarterback in history to open his career with five straight performances of 300 passing yards or more; last time out, Ward threw for 343 yards and four touchdowns.

No quarterback in FBS has thrown for more touchdowns than Cam Ward, who leads the country with 18 TDs.

With 60 yards vs. Virginia Tech last time out, Xavier Restrepo moved past Phillip Dorsett (2,132) into ninth place. He needs eight yards to pass No. 8 Travis Benjamin (2,146), 20 to pass No. 7 Mike Harley (2,158), and 22 to pass No. 6 Leonard Hankerson (2,160). With 80 more yards, he’d move past Stacy Coley (2,218) into the top five in history.

Defensive end Tyler Baron, who has started all five games, is one of just 14 players in FBS with 7.5 tackles for loss. Baron has 18.0 career sacks - the 15th-highest active career total among all FBS players. The Knoxville, Tenn., native started once again and put together only the 10th three-sack game over the last 20 years by a UM player vs. Florida A&M. He was named ACC Defensive Lineman of the Week for his performance vs. the Rattlers.

Last time out, kicker Andy Borregales kicked a career-long 56-yard field goal just before halftime - it was tied for the fourth-longest field in Miami Hurricanes history. It was his 62nd career field goal - the fourth-most in UM history.

Borregales had eight points last time out vs. Virginia Tech (one field goal, five extra points), moving him to 330 career points. After UM’s win over Ball State, Borregales moved past Todd Sievers (310) for fourth in career points.

Borregales, whose older brother Jose is the lone Lou Groza Award winner in Miami history (2020), went 22 for 26 on field goals in 2023, tied for the most made kicks in the Atlantic Coast Conference. He converted 44 of his 45 extra-point attempts and recorded 46 touchbacks on 73 kickoffs. He was also an All-ACC first-team honoree.

His 62 career field goals are the fourth-most in Miami history, trailing only Michael Badgley (77), Carlos Huerta (73) and Jon Peattie (64). Among active FBS kickers, Borregales is one of just five in the country who have more than 60 career field goals, joining Jonah Dalmas (Boise State - 83), Alex Raynor (Kentucky - 66), John Hoyland (Wyoming - 62) and Graham Nicholson (Alabama - 61).



Notable Team Stats

UM is No. 2 in FBS in scoring offense.

Miami is the nation’s leader in third down conversion rate, capitalizing on 64.9% as an offense.

The Hurricanes rank No. 2 in FBS and No. 1 in the ACC in total offense, averaging 585.6 yards per game.

Miami is ranked No. 1 in FBS in plays of 20 or more yards (45) and No. 2 in plays of 10 or more yards (107). Of the 45 plays of 20 or more yards, 37 are passing - most in FBS. Of the 87 plays of 10 or more yards, 81 are passing. The Canes had only 48 passing plays of 20 or more yards and 129 of 10 or more pass yards in 2023.

Miami is ranked No. 2 in FBS in scoring differential in the second halves of games; Miami’s +21.6 average point differential in the second half trails only Ohio State (+22.0). The Hurricanes’ best quarter is the third quarter (+12.0).

A season after the entire group finished with 154 receiving yards and one touchdown in 2023, Miami’s tight ends have emerged as go-to options for Ward in 2024. In the season opener vs. Florida, Elijah Arroyo had a career-best 89 yards on four catches, Cam McCormick opened the game’s scoring with his first touchdown as a Hurricane, and freshman Elija Lofton had two catches for 38 yards vs. the host Gators in a lopsided win.

Last time out in a 38-34 win over Virginia Tech, the group had five catches, 125 yards and two touchdowns.

Through five weeks, Miami’s tight ends have totaled 491 yards on 26 catches with six touchdown receptions.

Entering Week 6, the Hurricanes rank No. 5 in the nation in “defensive mayhem” - plays on defense featuring a tackle for loss, an interception, or a gained fumble. Despite no fumbles gained, Miami has a 16.33% mayhem rate on defense; the Hurricanes have a 9.94% sack rate, a 13.33% tackle-for-loss rate, and a 5.52% interception rate.

In the “middle eight” rankings—which track the scoring in the final four minutes of the first half and the first four minutes of the second half, widely considered the most critical juncture of the game—Miami was No. 16 in FBS in the first two years under Cristobal.

The Hurricanes have taken another leap this year; Miami is ranked No. 10 in FBS in the middle eight this year (+7.4).

From 2014 to 2019, teams that won the “middle eight” minutes of the game at the FBS level won 74% of the time.

Miami ranks as the No. 12 performing secondary in FBS by pass coverage by PFF (91.0 grade).

Miami ranks No. 35 nationally in passing yards allowed (168.0), No. 13 nationally in passing yards per completion (15.28), No. 2 nationally in passes intercepted (8), and No. 12 in FBS in team passing efficiency defense (90.50).


Cal

QB Fernando Mendoza has completed 83-of-123 (67.5%) passes for 892 yards with five touchdowns and two interceptions for a 138.6 rating, with his completion percentage and rating 4.5 and 5.8 points better than his final 2023 numbers (63.0%, 132.8).

Mendoza had the three highest completion percentages of his career in the first three games of the 2024 season, including a career-best 72.4% (21-of-29) against San Diego State. In the first half at Auburn, Mendoza completed 19-of-21 passes (90.5%).

Mendoza completed 22-of-36 passes for a career-high 303 yards in his most recent contest at Florida State with no touchdowns and one interception for a 126.3 rating. His 36 passing attempts equaled a previous career-best two weeks earlier at Auburn.

Mendoza has only two interceptions and no fumbles lost through four games after committing 12 turnovers (10 interceptions, two fumbles lost) in just nine games and eight starts in 2023.

RB Jaydn Ott has been limited in 2024 after earning preseason All-American honors from Athlon (third team) and Phil Steele (fourth team) and being named a first-team All-ACC pick by the league's media.

Ott had his most productive game of 2024 in his last contest at Florida State, with season-highs of 16 carries and 73 yards on the ground.

Ott has season totals of a team-high 40 carries for 133 yards with a team-high two rushing touchdowns despite being limited to 24 carries for 60 yards and two rushing touchdowns in his first two games of 2024 and not playing in the third against San Diego State.

Ott has 2,345 rushing yards through his first 27 games at Cal over two-plus seasons and is within 159 of Cal's top-10 list, with John Olszewski (2504, 1950-52) currently 10th. − Ott's career average of 112.7 all-purpose yards per game is sixth nationally among active FBS players, while his 86.9 rushing yards is seventh.

Ott led the Pac-12 in 2023 with 1,315 rushing yards (No. 14 NCAA), as well as per-game averages of 109.6 rushing yards (No. 9 NCAA) and 135.67 all-purpose yards (No. 6 NCAA).

The combined 18.0 tackles per game by Teddye Buchanan (10.0, 40 total) and Cade Uluave (8 per game, 32 total) are the second-most by any ACC duo. Buchanan's team-leading ten tackles per game are also third in the ACC and 14th nationally. Uluave is second on the team and tied for eighth in the ACC in 2024 with eight tackles per contest.

DB Nohl Williams co-leads the nation as one of two players with four interceptions and is tied for third with seven passes defended. Williams is also one of 11 players with one kickoff return for a touchdown.


Notable Team Stats

Cal has allowed 14 points or less in four consecutive games to begin the season for its longest such run since opponents scored 14 or less in six in a row spanning the final two games of 1967 and the first four of 1968.

Cal leads in interceptions with 10 (Miami is one of four teams, one behind with nine) while also ranking in the top 10 nationally in turnover margin (T3rd, +2.00 pg, +8 total) and takeaways (7th, 11).

Cal is also in the top 30 in a total of 15 team statistical categories, including passing efficiency defense (5th, 90.25), scoring defense (12th, 12.8 ppg), fumbles lost (T13th, 1), turnovers lost (T15th, 3), fourth-down conversion percentage defense (T16th, 27.3%), fewest passes intercepted (T23rd, 2), punt return defense (24th, 2.80 ypr), kickoff return average (T24th, 24.00 ypr), first downs defense (T24th, 69) and rushing defense (T21st, 105.3 ypg).

Cal has at least one takeaway in 39 of its last 42 games and, at one point during the 2022 season, had the longest streak of consecutive games in the nation of at least one takeaway with 19 in a row.

The Bears' current streak is six straight, and the last time they did not force a turnover was against Stanford.

Cal turned the ball over thrice in 2024 after coughing it up 28 times in 2023 (fourth-most in the country).

Cal's +5 turnover margin at Auburn was its best since a +5 against Colorado in 2018. The Bears were also on the plus side against UC Davis (+2), San Diego State (+1), and Florida State.

In 2024, Cal outscored its opponents 27-0 in the third quarter and 51-21 in the second half. In the middle two quarters, Cal held a 47-7 lead.


Stats are as of October 2, 2024

Miami Athletics and California Athletics contributed to this report.

Line: Miami - 10

Over/Under: 53.5

Weather: 92 Degrees, 0 percent chance of rain

Overall Comparison
Strength of Schedule Provided By Power Rankings Guru October 3, 2024
MiamiCalifornia

Head Coach

Mario Cristobal

79-73 Overall

20-14 At Miami

Justin Wilcox

39-44 Overall

39-44 At Cal

2024 Record

5-0 (1-0 ACC)

3-1 (0-1 ACC)

Rankings

AP - 8th

Coaches - 8th

AP - NR

Coaches - NR

Strength of Schedule

64th

63rd

Miami Offense Vs. Cal Defense
MiamiCal

Points Per Game

49.4 (1st in ACC)

12.8 (1st in ACC)

Rushing Yards Per Game

193 (4th in ACC)

105.3 (7th in ACC)

Passing Yards Per Game

392.6 (1st in ACC)

182.3 (4th in ACC)

Total Yards Per Game

585.6 (1st in ACC)

287.5 (3rd in ACC)

Miami Defense Vs. Cal Offense
MiamiCal

Points Per Game

15 (2nd in ACC)

23 (16th in ACC)

Rushing Yards Per Game

93 (4th in ACC)

145.8 (13th in ACC)

Passing Yards Per Game

172 (2nd in ACC)

228.3 (11th in ACC)

Total Yards Per Game

265 (1st in ACC)

374 (12th in ACC)

Individual Leaders
MiamiCalifornia

Passing

Cam Ward

1,782 passing yards

113-161 (71.8 Comp.%) - 4 INTs

18 touchdowns

Fernando Mendoza

892 passing yards

83-123 (66.2 Comp.%) - 2 INTs

5 touchdowns

Rushing

Damien Martinez

54 carries

250 yards

4.6 yards per rush

4 touchdowns

Javian Thomas

38 carries

267 yards

7 per rush

1 touchdown

Receiving

Xavier Restrepo

25 receptions

422 yards

16.9 yards per reception

5 touchdowns

Nyziah Hunter

14 receptions

182 yards

13 yards per reception

4 touchdowns

Defense

Francisco Mauigoa

30 total tackles

15 solo tackles

4 tackles for loss

2 sacks

0 interceptions

Teddye Buchanan

40 total tackles

18 solo tackles

4.5 tackles for loss

2.5 sack

0 interceptions

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