Miami will be further challenged to get to the ACC title game with the elimination of the Atlantic and Coastal divisions in the conference, and according to metrics, the chances of making it to the ACC championship game are slim.
According to ESPN's Football Power Index, Miami is ranked 29th entering the 2023 season and fourth in the ACC. Clemson (8th), Florida State (14th), and North Carolina (23rd) are all ranked ahead of the Hurricanes.
ESPN's FPI projections have Miami at 7.8 wins and 4.5 losses. Miami has a 94.3 percent chance to win six games and a 21.8 percent chance to make the ACC Championship game, with a 6.3 percent chance to win the title.
The preseason algorithm relies on past performance on offense and defense, returning and transfer production, and past recruiting data for players on each school's respective roster to form a numerical rating. The resulting data was then used to simulate the season 20,000 times, which produced the final results.
Here's the full list of ACC teams ranked by FPI:
1. Clemson
2. Florida State
3. UNC
4. Miami
5. Syracuse
6. Pitt
7. NC State
8. Louisville
9. Wake Forest
10. Duke
11. Virginia Tech
12. Georgia Tech
13. UVA
14. Boston College
Pro Football Focus's Power Rankings think less of the Hurricanes going into the 2023 season.
The statistical mega site picked Miami to finish 9th in the ACC with Duke, NC State, Louisville, and Wake Forest all picked to finish higher than the Hurricanes along with the Tar Heels, Seminoles, and Tigers.
PFF Power Rankings are generated by the relative quality of each team as defined by Point Spread Team Ratings
Point Spread Team Ratings: the number of points each team would be a favorite or underdog to an average team on a neutral field
Point Spread QB Ratings: the number of points each QB contributes to the Point Spread Team Rating
Strength of Schedule: the relative difficulty of each team's schedule based on Point Spread Team Ratings of opponents
Projections: probabilities based on 10,000 season simulations given Team Point Spread Ratings, Strength of Schedule, and team records.
Also according to PFF's ELO ratings which project player performance, Miami is ranked 52nd out of 131 teams.
Although this is highly sophisticated data, this does not take into account the impact of coaching and development. Meaning if Miami can supersede expectations by a wide margin this season, Mario Cristobal and others on this Miami coaching staff will be in the running for coach of the year awards.
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