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Published Sep 20, 2024
Miami vs. USF Preview: By the numbers - statistical comparison
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Marcus Benjamin  •  CanesCounty
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DATE: Saturday, September 21, 2024

WHERE: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL

TIME/TV: 7:00 PM EST/ESPN

LIVE AUDIO: 560 WQAM

MIAMI: Official Site | Schedule | Roster | Stats | Twitter

SOUTH FLORIDA: Official Site | Schedule | Roster | Stats | Twitter

The No. 8 ranked Miami Hurricanes (3-0, 0-0 ACC) will face unranked USF (2-1, AAC 0-0) for the seventh time in school history. Miami leads the series 5-1.

The matchup ends a ten-year hiatus with the first game of a three-game series that will see USF visit Miami in 2025 and 2028.

The Hurricanes have not traveled to Tampa to play USF since 2013, when they won at Raymond James Stadium, 49-21.

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Storylines and Notables

Miami is off to a 3-0 start for the second straight year under Cristobal’s direction.

The 62-0 win over Ball State last week was the most lopsided shutout victory in Hurricanes history over an FBS opponent; its previous best was 61-0 vs. Rutgers in 2001. Miami also set a program record for yards in a game (750).

WR Jacolby George notched a season-best six catches for 109 yards and one touchdown last week. The 100-yard effort was the third of his career.

Miami limited Ball State to just 115 yards of total offense, holding the Cardinals to six yards on the ground. The Hurricanes yielded just 25 yards in the second half. The Hurricanes totaled four sacks and nine tackles for loss.

Miami moved up two spots to No. 8 in the Associated Press top 25 (from No. 10), and one spot to No. 11 (from No. 12) in the LBM Coaches Poll released on Sept. 15. This is the Hurricanes’ highest ranking in the AP poll since Oct. 4, 2020, when Miami checked in at No. 7 nationally.

Mario Cristobal’s highest-ranked team as head coach came in the final 2019 polls when Oregon was No. 5/5.


USF opened the upper west deck of Raymond James Stadium on Sunday. A record-shattering 13,179 students claimed tickets in the first 24 hours they were opened for claiming.

That shattered the old mark of 8,409 student ticket claims in 24 hours for South Florida’s battle with No. 10 Alabama last year. As of Sunday morning, the student ticket claims for the Miami game stood at 15,000, far surpassing the previous record for total student ticket claims, which stood at 12,549 for the Bulls' clash with No. 13 Florida in 2021.

The publicly available seats in the lower bowl for the Miami game also sold out before South Florida’s game at Southern Miss.

Against the Golden Eagles last week, USF was trailing 14-0 just eight minutes in before reeling off 28 unanswered points and rolling to a 49-24 victory over Southern Miss. The Bulls outscored the Eagles 49-10 over the final 52 minutes of play, racking up 562 yards of offense and 369 on the ground while collecting three turnovers.

Brown completed 19 of 29 passes for 193 yards and two touchdowns and ran for 72 yards and a touchdown. Kelley Joiner Jr. ran for 117 yards and two touchdowns, and Nay’Quan Wright added 105 yards on the ground and a touchdown.

Sean Atkins caught five passes for 87 yards to move into third on the USF career receptions chart with 134. USF logged 369 rushing yards, its most since posting 374 at Western Kentucky in the opening game of the 2023 season.

The Bulls' 562 yards of offense were the most since posting 503 vs. Charlotte in the final regular season game of 2023. The Bulls' defense forced three turnovers, getting at least two for the fifth straight game dating back to last season, and has now created 15 turnovers in that span.

Meanwhile, the Bulls committed their first turnover of the season in the fourth quarter, ending a string of 11 quarters without a turnover this year.

Kicker John Cannon raced 17 yards on a fake field goal to set up the Bull's first second-half touchdown and a 35-21 lead. It was the Bulls first fake field goal conversion since 2019. Joiner posted his fifth career 100-yard rushing game

Running back Nay’Quan Wright logged his fourth career 100-yard rushing game.


Stats

Miami

Miami is the nation’s leader in third-down defense, with just a 14.7% conversion rate by opponents.

No quarterback in FBS has thrown for more touchdowns than Cam Ward, who leads the country with 11 TDs.

The Hurricanes rank No. 2 in FBS and No. 1 in the ACC in passing offense, averaging 405.3 yards per game.

Last time out, Ward became the first player since Miami joined the ACC (before 2004) with at least 300 passing yards and three touchdowns in each of their first three games of a season. He is also the first Miami quarterback to begin a season with three consecutive 300-yard performances.

Ward’s 1,035 yards through the air are the second-most in program history over a three-game start to the season, trailing only Craig Erickson’s 1,126 in 1990. He passed Gino Torretta’s 1991 start (989) with 346 last time out.

Xavier Restrepo needs 153 yards to pass No. 9 Phillip Dorsett (2,132), 167 to pass No. 8 Travis Benjamin (2,146), 179 to pass No. 7 Mike Harley (2,158) and 181 to pass No. 6 Leonard Hankerson (2,160). With 239 more yards, he’d move past Stacy Coley (2,218) into the top 5 in program history.

Through three weeks, Miami’s tight ends have totaled 320 yards on 17 catches with four touchdown receptions.

Tyler Baron is tied for the FBS lead with 7.0 tackles for loss, alongside Kyle Kennard of South Carolina and TJ Jackson of West Virginia. He is tied for second in FBS in sacks (4.5) - behind Kennard + Jahvaree Ritzie (UNC) with 5.0. Baron has 18.0 career sacks - the 10th-highest active career total among all FBS players.

Entering Week 4, the Hurricanes rank No. 1 in the nation in “defensive mayhem”—plays on defense featuring a tackle for loss, an interception, or a gained fumble. Despite no fumbles gained, UM still has a 20.75% mayhem rate on defense; the Hurricanes have a 12.24% sack rate, a 16.98% tackle-for-loss rate, and a 6.98% interception rate.

Miami ranks as the top-performing secondary in pass coverage by PFF (92.2 grade).

Miami ranks No. 12 nationally in passing yards allowed (123.0), No. 20 nationally in passing yards per completion (14.83), No. 3 nationally in passes intercepted (6), and No. 5 nationally in team passing efficiency defense (76.74).

In the “middle eight” rankings—which track the scoring in the final four minutes of the first half and the first four minutes of the second half, widely considered the most critical juncture of the game—Miami was No. 16 in FBS in two seasons under Cristobal. It is currently ranked No. 2 in 2024 (+10.7), trailing only Alabama (+11.7).

From 2014-2019, teams that won the middle 8 minutes of the game at the FBS level won 74% of the time.

Last time out vs. Ball State, Miami kicker Andy Borregales knocked down one field goal and five extra points, moving past Todd Sievers (310) for fourth on the Hurricanes’ all-time points list. He now has 316 career points.

His 61 career field goals are tied for the fourth-most in Miami history with Danny Miller and trail only Michael Badgley (77), Carlos Huerta (73), and Jon Peattie (64).

Among active FBS kickers, Borregales is one of just three in the country who have more than 60 career field goals; he trails only Jonah Dalmas of Boise State (82) and Alex Raynor of Kentucky (62).


USF

USF faces its second top-10 ranked foe of the season, and it gave #4 Alabama a scare in Tuscaloosa for the second straight season.

USF will play its 15th game against a top 10-ranked FBS opponent. USF has Top 10 victories over No. 5 WVU (2007), at No. 7 West Virginia (2006) and vs. No. 9 Louisville (2005).

USF has lost its last eight meetings with top-10 foes dating to the 2007 victory over No. 5 West Virginia, the highest-ranked opponent beaten in Tampa.

USF, which began its first four seasons as an FCS program, has three victories over FCS Top-10 teams during that era, including over No. 1 Troy State (20-10) in 2000.

Offenses log fourth 45+ point game in last five, 5th 500+ yard game under Golesh; 369 rushing yards and two 100-yard rushers at Southern Miss.

USF is No. 8 nationally in rushing offense, posting 268 ypg.

The defense has extended its string to five straight games with two+ turnovers gained; it ranks No. 8 nationally in turnovers gained/No. 5 TO margin.

Bulls defense ranks No. 8 in TFL in the nation, No. 21 in sacks, and has 3.0 in every game this season.

Quarterback Byrum Brown appears on five national award watch lists among nine appearances for USF players entering the 2024 season.

After forcing three turnovers in back-to-back games at Alabama and Southern Miss, USF has forced two or more turnovers in five straight and three or more in five of the last seven, dating to last season. The Bulls rank No. 8 nationally in turnovers forced (8).

In 2024, the Bulls have upped their sack game, ranking No. 21 in sacks (3.0), No. 8 in tackles for loss (9.0) and No. 8 in turnovers gained (8).


Stats are as of September 19, 2023

Miami Athletics and USF Athletics contributed to this report.

Line: Miami - 16.5

Over/Under: 65.5

Weather: 92 Degrees, 40 percent chance of rain

Overall Comparison
Strength of Schedule Provided By Power Rankings Guru September 16, 2024
MiamiSouth Florida

Head Coach

Mario Cristobal

77-73 Overall

18-14 At Miami

Alex Golesh

9-7 Overall

9-7 At USF

2024 Record

3-0 (0-0 ACC)

2-1 (0-0 AAC)

Rankings

AP - 8th

Coaches - 11th

AP - NR

Coaches - NR

Strength of Schedule

56th

76th

Miami Offense Vs. USF  Defense
MiamiSouth Florida

Points Per Game

53 (2nd in ACC)

32.2 (10th in AAC)

Rushing Yards Per Game

204 (4th in ACC)

143.8 (6th in AAC)

Passing Yards Per Game

405.3 (1st in ACC)

288.8 (14th in AAC)

Total Yards Per Game

609 (1st in ACC)

432.6 (10th in AAC)

Miami Defense Vs. USF Offense
MiamiSouth Florida

Points Per Game

8.7 (2nd in ACC)

31.9 (4th in AAC)

Rushing Yards Per Game

65.7 (2nd in ACC)

182.8 (3rd in AAC)

Passing Yards Per Game

203.4 (1st in ACC)

268.8 (6th in AAC)

Total Yards Per Game

188.7 (1st in ACC)

451.6 (4th in AAC)

Individual Leaders
MiamiSouth Florida

Passing

Cam Ward

1,035 passing yards

65-89 (73 Comp.%) - 1 INT

11 touchdowns

Byrum Brown

448 passing yards

47-84 (56 Comp.%) - 0 INT

2 touchdowns

Rushing

Damien Martinez

29 carries

159 yards

5.5 yards per rush

1 touchdowns

Byrum Brown

46 carries

254 yards

5.5 per rush

2 touchdowns

Receiving

Xavier Restrepo

14 receptions

263 yards

18.8 yards per reception

4 touchdowns

Sean Atkins

13 receptions

164 yards

12.6 yards per reception

0 touchdowns

Defense

Francisco Mauigoa

17 total tackles

11 solo tackles

2 tackles for loss

1 sack

0 interceptions

Mac Harris

19 total tackles

11 solo tackles

3.5 tackles for loss

1 sack

0 interceptions

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