Published Nov 22, 2023
Miami Football Game Preview: Week Thirteen vs. Boston College
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Marcus Benjamin  •  CanesCounty
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Miami travels to Boston College for a Black Friday game to conclude the 2023 regular season.

Miami (6-5, 2-5 ACC) suffered its fifth loss of the season with a 38-31 loss to Louisville, and Boston College (6-5, 3-4 ACC) lost its fifth game to Pitt 24-17 last week.

A win for each team would guarantee a winning season this year. Both teams aim to end losing streaks, as the Hurricanes are on a three-game losing streak, and the Eagles have lost two in a row.

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How to Watch

When: Friday, November 24th

Time: Noon PM Eastern

Where to Watch: ABC

Game Odds

Line: Miami -10

Moneyline: Miami -255 | Boston College +270

Over/Under: 48.5

Game Trends

- The Hurricanes and their opponents have scored more than 47.5 points in six of 11 games this season.

- Per the spread and over/under, the implied score for the game is Hurricanes 29, and Eagles 19.

- The Hurricanes have a 77.8% chance to win this game based on the moneyline's implied probability. The Eagles hold a 27.0% implied probability.

- Miami (FL) has covered five times in ten chances against the spread this season.

- Boston College has compiled a 4-7-0 ATS record so far this season.

Boston College Players to Know

Thomas Castellanos, Quarterback

The Boston College quarterback leads the Eagles in passing (1,995 yards) and rushing (827 yards) on the year. Against common opponents with Miami (Florida State, Virginia, Louisville, and Georgia Tech), Thomas Castellanos has averaged 252 yards in the air and 89.7 on the ground.

Castellanos can hurt defenses with designed runs but is primarily dangerous when escaping the pocket. He keeps his head up looking for receivers downfield but can quickly get first downs with his legs if needed.

The transfer from UCF has been dealing with a calf issue and is not as mobile as in earlier games this season. The Eagles have scored 17, 22, and 16 points since his injury.

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Kye Robichaux, Running Back

The offense is powered by the running game with Castellanos and Kye Robichaux. The BC running back had a bounce-back game from injury against Virginia Tech, rushing for 118 yards on 24 carries.

The Western Kentucky transfer is a physical runner who can catch the ball from the backfield and is a focal point of the Eagles' offense.


Lewis Bond, Wide Receiver

Lewis Bond becomes the go-to wide receiver with Ryan O'Keefe out for the year with a neck injury against Virginia. Bond registered 104 receiving yards against the Cavaliers and has totaled 305 yards on 23 receptions since O'Keefe's injury.

Bond is also a threat as a returner with a long of 25 on the year.


Vinny Depalma, Linebacker

The senior linebacker is the sideline-to-sideline run stopper for the Eagles, who has made 83 total stops during the year. He is constantly around the football and the heart and soul of the BC defense.


Jalen Cheek and John Pupel, Defensive Backs

Top pass defender Elijah Jones is done for the year due to off-the-field issues, and an injury to defensive Cole Batson means sophomore Jalen Cheek and senior John Pupel will have to step up in a big way to stop the Miami passing attack.

Cheek has 15 solo tackles on the year with three passes defended, and Pupel has 48 solo tackles and a forced fumble.

What to Watch For

Containing Castellanos

Castellanos is averaging 5.2 yards per carry in wins and 3.9 in losses this season. In conference play this season, Miami allowed 46 yards to Haynes King, 10 yards to Drake Maye, -27 to Cade Klubnik, six yards to Tony Muskett, -5 to MJ Morris, -30 to Jordan Travis, and 11 yards to Jack Plummer.

Considering college football does consider negative sack yardage in the rushing total for quarterbacks, King was the only somewhat effective QB on the ground.

Miami ranks tenth in the nation and first in the ACC in stopping the run, allowing 92.9 yards per game.

The passing game should get going 

Tyler Van Dyke seems to have found his footing against Louisville. The Miami QB passed for 327 yards on 61.5 completion percentage. He made good decisions for the most part last Saturday but was missing the game-winning throw in the end.

Van Dyke will likely not need a game-winning drive to win in Chestnut Hill. He does need to continue the turnover-less performance he put together against the Cardinals for the Hurricanes to have a chance at a win.

Boston College currently ranks 22nd in the nation in passing yards allowed on the year.

Jones, their top corner, has been out since for the last two games, and Batson missed the Pitt game. Virginia Tech and Pitt combined for 444 passing yards, but the Hokies rank 88th in passing offense and the Panthers rank 83rd. Miami ranks 39th in passing offense.

Stopping the run should lead to a victory

Stopping the BC running game alone should lead to a Miami victory. Boston College ranks 101st in passing offense, so it would be surprising if the Eagles make big plays in the passing game against Miami.

The only main question will be if Miami can contain the running game. BC ranks 17th in rushing nationally, and Miami cheats up or loads up the box; the Eagles have shown the ability to make plays with pass plays on underneath routes.

But if Miami can force third and long, the chances of getting off the field should be in the Hurricanes' favor. BC is converting third downs at 41 percent, which currently ties with Florida State. Miami forced the Seminoles to 3-12 on third downs this season.

Outcome

This "should" be a breakout game for the Hurricanes, who come into New England as a ten-point favorite. Boston College is decimated by injuries, and outside of Daryl Porter Jr. and Leonard Taylor as questionable to play for Miami, the Hurricanes should be relatively healthy for the regular-season finale.

The Hurricanes have elements of its football team that travel with its rushing defense and running game ranking averaging 170.8 per game.

According to Pro Football Focus, Miami ranks 12th in the nation in creating pressure, and Boston College ranks 20th in pass block, a battle to watch down the stretch of the game.

If Miami can get to an early lead, it will be challenging for BC to come back from a deficit. Van Dyke chooses a "take what the defense gives them approach" the Hurricanes should pull away in the second half.

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