Published Oct 13, 2023
Miami Football Game Preview: Week Seven vs. North Carolina
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Frank Tucker  •  CanesCounty
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Miami is coming off a devastating 23-20 loss in the final moments against Georgia Tech game last week, dropping them to 4-1 and 25th in the national associate press rankings. The season is at a fork in the road now, as arguably the season's biggest test is here.

Miami will have a chance to revive conference championship aspirations with a win against North Carolina this week going into a grueling stretch of ACC play.

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How to Watch

When: Saturday, October 14th

Time: 7:30 PM Eastern

Where to Watch: ABC

Game Odds

Line: North Carolina - 3

Moneyline: Miami +150 | North Carolina -182

Over/Under: 56.5

Game Trends

- Per the spread and over/under, the implied score for the tilt is Tar Heels 30, Hurricanes 27.

- The Tar Heels have a 64.5% chance to win this contest per the moneyline's implied probability. The Hurricanes hold a 39.5% implied probability.

- North Carolina has put together a 4-1-0 record against the spread this season.

- Miami (FL) has covered three times in four matchups with a spread this season.


North Carolina Players to Know

Drake Maye, Quarterback

Miami knows what Drake Maye can bring to the table. He was the x-factor in last season's close, 27-24 loss about a year ago to the day. He threw for over 300 yards and had another 53 on the ground while scoring two touchdowns. Was it his best performance? No, but he did lead his team to almost 500 yards of total offense, and clutch plays in the red zone and third down pushed North Carolina to a victory.

Maye is still one of the hot names for the Heisman Trophy and has a chance to be a top-five draft pick in the NFL draft next season. He is following up a 5,000 total yard 2022 season where he scored 45 touchdowns with an average of over 350 total yards per game, producing 31 or more in every contest so far in 2023.

Last week, the elite passer had almost 500 yards and four total scores, leading North Carolina to a 40-7 win against a solid Syracuse team. He has also completed over 70 percent of his passes in every game. He may be the best player Miami sees in 2023.


Nate McCollum, Wide Receiver

Josh Downs gave Miami the business the last two seasons as North Carolina's shifty slot target. Now comes Nate McCollum, North Carolina's leading receiver through five games. A transfer from Georgia Tech, McCollum had one of his best college games against the Hurricanes last year in a 35-14 loss. He totaled 101 yards and a touchdown, including a 42-yard grab that was the game's biggest play for the Yellow Jackets.

At 5'8", he will be a volume weapon for the Tar Heels that attempts to open things up on the outside for guys like JJ Jones, Kobe Paysour, and Devontez Walker. He has not been the same big-play threat as in 2022, but he leads the team in receptions (28) and receiving yards (355).


Devontez Walker, Wide Receiver

It's been just one game for Tez Walker in 2023, and while he was not among the top two receivers stat-wise for the Syracuse game, he is a major talent that, even rusty, still had six receptions. The Kent State transfer was one of the biggest names on the move this off-season after a 921-yard, 12-touchdown 2022 season and his subsequent ineligibility handed down from the NCAA - until last week.

He will look for his breakout performance in a ranked-versus-ranked primetime performance. The 6'3" 200-pound wideout has proven to produce against even the best in college football. Last year against Georgia, he had seven catches, 106 yards, and a touchdown while catching four passes for 56 yards and another score against Washington.

Miami cornerback Jaden Davis has some familiarity with Walker. He and the Sooners held him to just one catch for 12 yards last season.


Alijah Huzzie, Defensive Back

Through five games, Alijah Huzzie has three interceptions as North Carolina's leader on the backend of their defense. He has also added punt return prowess with a return for a score against Pittsburgh and four tackles per game. The junior, versatile defensive back was a four-year veteran at East Tennessee State before moving to the Power Five ranks. In 34 games, he had 179 career tackles, 12 interceptions, and 30 pass breakups.

The FCS All-American will try to mirror last week's stat line for Miami quarterback Tyler Van Dyke, where he threw three interceptions against Georgia Tech. He will be playing more of a 'Star' backer type role, roaming near the line of scrimmage and moving all around the defense because of a season-ending injury to DeAndre Boykins.


Cedric Gray, Linebacker

While Huzzie has earned much of the defensive shine at North Carolina this season, Cedric Gray has had a solid start to 2023. The pre-season All-American and first-team All-ACC selection has had seven or more tackles in all five games this year, leading the team with 42 total, second in tackles for loss with 4.5, and second on the team in sacks with 2.5.

Last year, he had 13 tackles against Miami, adding to 145 stops and 12 tackles for loss - ranking near the tops of the Power Five ranks at the linebacker position. He is one of the best linebackers in the country and has already been voted defensive MVP by his team during his North Carolina career.

What to Watch For

Can TVD Bounce Back?

Was not taking a knee awful? Yes. Was the fumble wrong? Yes. Was the game-winning score devastating? Yes. None of that happens, though, if Van Dyke has a solid performance and does not give the ball away three times. It was a different TVD than we saw through the first four games. He had just one interception, completed well over 70 percent of his passes, and had 12 touchdowns.

His regression to 2022 form gave fans a bad case of deja vu, but history is fifty-fifty if he will be #TVDforHeisman or the guy who led Miami to a 5-7 season just a year ago.

So far, he is 4-3, coming off a loss where he completed the next game. He has had some signature performances after taking an L that includes 300-plus yard games against North Carolina State (2021), Virginia Tech (2021), North Carolina (2022) and Virginia Tech (2022). He is 3-1 in those games. He threw just one interception in those contests proving he can lay off the turnovers even when adversity strikes.

There is a flip side to that, though. He threw for nearly 500 yards against North Carolina after a loss last year, but in 2021 in the same situation, he completed just 44 percent of his passes with three interceptions. There is also the Middle Tennessee State debacle, arguably the worst game of his Miami career.

There is a lot of unknown with how he will respond this week - we have seen greatness and weakness against North Carolina in the last two years from Van Dyke. The hope is he regains his form from the first four games.

Who Will Win the Turnover Battle?

Follow the turnovers. Miami, with a 5-7 roster, nearly took out North Carolina last season because they forced Maye to throw two interceptions - but they still did not win the turnover battle. If you want to beat North Carolina, you have to tie or win that critical comparison.

In four of their five losses last year, that was the case for North Carolina. The Clemson game was a perfect example. The Tar Heels scored just 10 points and had three turnovers - including two interceptions from Maye. With their plethora of talent on their offense, they are able to move the ball almost at will, evidence by being one of the most productive teams nationally in regard to scoring and yardage.

You stop North Carolina by taking the ball out of their quarterback's hands. It kept Miami in the thick of things - that is before a Miami turnover ended it all.

Miami was able to hold onto the ball in the first four games. Three interceptions and two fumbles ruined a chance at 5-0. Can things revert back is the question.

Shut Down Maye - You Win

The Clemson game is a perfect example of how to hinder the North Carolina offense - turnovers, force incompletions, and get Maye off his rhythm. A four-game losing streak to end 2022 is where Miami needs to find its strategy for success.

Maye, against Georgia Tech (53 percent, 202 yards, no touchdowns, interception) and North Carolina State (59 percent, 233 yards, one touchdown, one interception), looked mortal during that stretch. Those were not elite defenses - and still, eight sacks were allowed in those two games combined.

Miami's defensive line has been solid, but the sack numbers leave you wanting for more. If that unit can lead the charge and allow the Miami safety duo of Kamren Kinchens and James Williams to play sideline to sideline and make plays, the success had against Texas A&M - another ranked opponent of Miami - is there to be had.

Outcome

Miami is in a position to save the season in a primetime matchup that can essentially cancel out one of the most embarrassing moments in program history. North Carolina is a borderline top-ten team with a Heisman candidate quarterback, a receiving core capable of being one of the best in the country, and a defense that has been dominating over the last three games.

Miami will have to prove last week was a fluke, and if the once revolutionary offensive attack led by Shannon Dawson can return, a chance at redemption is there, along with a rise back up the rankings and a chance to compete for an ACC Championship. Vegas likes this one to be close. Miami finishes this one different than 2022.

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