Miami Football Game Preview: Week Ten vs. NC State

Miami returns to the state of North Carolina to play its second road game of the season in conference. The Hurricanes will take on the NC State Wolfpack in prime time to attempt to keep pace in the ACC title race. Miami defeated Virginia 29-26 in overtime last week to record its second straight win.

The Hurricanes (6-2) became bowl-eligible with last week's win over the Cavaliers. NC State (5-3) can become bowl-eligible with a win over Miami.

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Storm Tracker Podcast - Scouting the Opponent - Miami Vs. NC State

Storm Tracker Podcast: Chance or no chance? Can Miami keep winning?

When: Saturday, November 4th

Time: 8:00 PM Eastern

Where to Watch: ACC Network

Line: Miami - 5

Moneyline: Miami - 222 | NC State + 180

Over/Under: 44

- Based on the spread and over/under, the implied score for the game is Hurricanes 25, Wolfpack 19.

- The Hurricanes have a 68.9% chance to collect the win in this game based on the moneyline's implied probability.

- The Wolfpack have a 35.7% implied probability.

- The Hurricanes have covered the spread twice this season (2-2 ATS) when playing as at least 5.5-point favorites.

- Five of Miami (FL)'s seven games with a set total have hit the over (71.4%).

- Miami (FL) has won 75% of the games this season when it was the moneyline favorite (3-1).

- Miami (FL) is 1-1 (winning 75% of its games) when it has played as a moneyline favorite of -225 or shorter.

- Miami (FL) is 4-3-0 ATS this season.

- NC State has a record of 2-4-1 against the spread this year.

Kevin Concepcion, Wide Receiver

For the second consecutive week, Miami will face a dynamic receiver. The freshman Kevin "KC" Concepcion went for 72 yards for a touchdown that put State up 24-7 with 4:35 remaining in the third quarter over Clemson. It's that game-breaking ability that makes him so dangerous.

The true freshman receiver led the team with five catches for 83 yards and two touchdowns last week. He also led the Wolfpack with 51 rushing yards on just two carries. He leads the Wolfpack with 42 receptions for 493 yards.

The second-best wide receiver in receptions has 17 (Keyone Lesane), and the second-most in yards has 180. Bradley Rozner and Trent Penix have two receiving scores, while Concepcion has six.

Concepcion is also used as a runner out of the backfield and has a long 50 this season. He leads the team with 583 all-purpose yards (17th in the ACC).

MJ Morris, Quarterback

NC State benched Brennan Armstrong after a 13-10 loss to Louisville in favor of MJ Morris. Since then, the Wolfpack have gone 2-1. Morris is a patient passer who can go outside the pocket to make plays and run if needed.

The 6'2" 205-pound sophomore has completed 56 percent of his passes, throwing 596 yards and six touchdowns. He is prone to making some mistakes, as he has thrown four interceptions and has been sacked six times in three games.

He came out of high school as a four-star prospect and the no. 5 dual-threat quarterback in the country.

Armstrong is still used as a runner for specific packages while still being a threat to throw the football.

Payton Wilson, Linebacker

The 6'4," 240-pound senior is the heart and soul of this defense. Payton Wilson leads the ACC in total tackles with 89 (41 solo), good for sixth in the country. He is an intelligent player who endlessly pursues the football and has already exceeded his 2022 tackle total (82).

He's also sitting at nine tackles for loss, four sacks, and has two interceptions -- including a pick-six before leaving the game against Clemson with an injury. Pack Head Coach Dave Dorean said he is "fine" and should be ready to play against Miami.

Defensive Lineman Davin Vann is second on the team in tackles for loss with six.

Aydan White, Cornerback

NC State has a feisty defensive backfield with Shyheim Battle and Devan Boykin, but Aydan White is probably the best. He has 12 total tackles, a sack, an interception, and four pass breakups to lead the team. Last season, he totaled 46 tackles and four interceptions, including an 84-yard pick-six.

Starting Quarterback Tyler Van Dyke returned to the field last week after a one-game absence due to a leg injury but did not necessarily return to form. He turned in a QB rating of 38.2, shy of his season-low against Georgia Tech - 35.8.

There are certainly questions about Van Dyke's health because he did not move well in the pocket and did not escape for yards once against UVA. If he can make first downs with his legs, it can significantly open up the offense.

NC State allows 227 passing yards per game (66th in the nation), a similar defense to Virginia, which allows 215.9 per game. Defenses have learned what TVD's habits are and play to his weaknesses. Zone coverage has been effective against the Miami quarterback, as he has fails to fit footballs in tight windows at times.

Van Dyke needs to step up in the pocket with confidence and deliver safe throws. What you want to see if you are a Hurricanes fan is a turnover-free game from TVD. Offensive Coordinator Shannon Dawson likes to take deep shots at times, but in a road environment, conservative play calling may get the win.

NC State has thrived on big plays. The 72-yard touchdown by Concepcion last week proved too much to overcome for Clemson. He also had a 48-yarder in a field goal win over UVA. Penix scored on a 38-yard touchdown to win a one-score win against Marshall.

Miami has done a great job of not letting big plays score for touchdowns. UVA's most prominent play last week was a 64-yard catch and run by Malik Washington. He was stopped short of scoring, however, as Te'Cory Couch ran him down to tackle him. Miami held UVA to a field goal in a game that eventually was won overtime.

If Miami can prevent big plays for touchdowns, they should have a great chance to grind out a win.

Both teams apply pressure, and the team that can keep their quarterback more upright will have a clear advantage in this game.

Miami ranks 11th in sacks allowed, with one per game, while NC State ranks 63rd, allowing two sacks per game. That one sack difference could be the difference between winning and losing.

According to Pro Football Focus, Miami ranks fifth in pressure grade (87.8), while NC State ranks 82nd (69.9).

Morris was sacked four times in a 24-3 loss to Duke and three times in wins against Marshall and Clemson.

Van Dyke was sacked four times in losses to Georgia Tech and North Carolina and three times in five wins this season.

Mario Cristobal is 3-2 in conference road games as head coach at Miami. Miami's strengths (defense and running game) are elements of a football team that travels well on the road. Those can be trumped, however, by turnovers, penalties, and a lack of third-down efficiency.

Miami ranks 84th in turnover margin (-2), 90th in fewest penalties per game (6.62), and 20th in third down conversion percentage.

If Miami can win the turnover margin and limit the penalties (the opposite of what happened against UNC), they should leave Raleigh with their third straight conference win.

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