Published Nov 17, 2023
Miami Football Game Preview: Week Twelve vs. Louisville
circle avatar
Marcus Benjamin  •  CanesCounty
Publisher
Twitter
@BenjaminRivals
info icon
Embed content not availableManage privacy settings

Miami hosts Louisville on senior day on Saturday and will hope to come out with a win in its last home game of the season.

Miami (6-4, 2-4 ACC) suffered its fourth loss of the season last week to Florida State 27-20, while Louisville (9-1, 6-1 ACC) will look to punch its ticket to the ACC Championship game with a win.

How to Watch

When: Saturday, November 18th

Time: Noon PM Eastern

Where to Watch: ABC

Game Odds

Line: Miami -1

Moneyline: Louisville -110 | Miami (FL) -110

Over/Under: 46.5

Game Trends

- Louisville has won five games against the spread this season while failing to cover or pushing five times.

- The Cardinals have been favored by 1 point or more nine times this season and covered the spread in four of those games.

- Miami (FL) has won five games against the spread this year, failing to cover four times.

- The Hurricanes are 3-1 ATS this season when playing as at least 1-point underdogs.

Louisville Players to Know

Jawhar Jordan, Running Back

The running game powers this Louisville offense, and Jawhar Jordan is having a stellar season. Jordan is 115 yards away from becoming the 18th 2,000-yard rusher at Louisville. He needs one more 100-yard game to move into seventh for the season and career 100-yard rushing games. He is one of four players with two rushes of over 70 yards.

Against Virginia, he rushed 17 times for 95 yards to run his season total to 976 yards, scoring 11 touchdowns and recording five 100-yard games.

He ranks 16th nationally and is third in the ACC with 11 rushing scores. Entering the Miami game, Jordan ranks second in the conference and ranks 18th nationally in rushing yards. The junior is averaging 6.9 yards per carry, which ranks eighth in the country and first in the ACC.

Jordan leads all FBS players with three scrimmage plays of 70+ yards and is tied for the national lead with two rushes of 70+ yards.

The Syracuse transfer has also caught 14 passes for 193 yards and returned a kick for 63 yards this year.

Jordan has been hampered with a hamstring injury, but another Cardinals running back stepped up last week.

info icon
Embed content not availableManage privacy settings

Issac Guerendo, Running Back

Isaac Guerendo scored the game-winning touchdown with a 73-yard run late in the fourth quarter against Virginia. It was the Cardinals’ sixth play this season of 70+ yards.

He has scored four touchdowns in the last two games on only 17 carries and rushed for 240 yards (14.1 per carry) and four scores over the previous two games.

Against Virginia Tech, Guerendo rushed 11 times for a career-high 146 yards, scoring on runs of 39, 12, and 36 yards, and also had a 60-yarder returned after a holding penalty. He averaged 13.3 yards per carry, the ninth time in school history that a player averaged more than 13 yards or better with at least ten carries. He became the third running back to do it, joining George Cain versus Morehead State in 1957 and Tom Lucia against Southern Miss in 1950.


Jamari Thrash, Wide Receiver

The Georgia State transfer has been exceptional for the Cardinals. Thrash has 49 receptions in nine games played for 734 yards and six touchdowns. He needs 266 yards to become the eighth wide receiver to record 1,000 yards in a season.

Thrash caught a season-high nine passes for 120 yards in the loss to Pitt — his second 100-yard receiving game at Louisville and seventh overall. Thrash ranks second in the ACC in receiving yards and is fifth in receiving touchdowns.

He caught four passes for 159 yards and a touchdown against Indiana, which included an 85-yard touchdown reception —recording the eighth-longest touchdown reception in school history. The 159 yards receiving were the fourth-highest of his career.

Thrash is averaging 81.6 yards receiving per game through nine games, which is second in the ACC. Thrash set a new school record by averaging 39.8 yards per reception (minimum four catches). DeVante Parker held the previous record of 38.3 yards in a 45-35 win at Pittsburgh on Oct. 13, 2012.

Thrash shares the FBS lead with two receptions of 70+ yards and is one of 33 players with at least one 80-yard catch. He ranks 15th with seven receptions of over 30 yards. The 6-foot-2 receiver has caught 153 passes for 2,486 yards and 18 touchdowns in 46 career contests.


Jack Plummer, Quarterback

Jack Plummer (no relation to Jake Plummer) is in his sixth season and played at Cal and Purdue before joining the Cardinals.

In his first season at Louisville, Plummer completes 173 of his 264 passing attempts (65.5 percent) for 2,402 yards, 16 touchdowns, and nine interceptions through 10 games. He also owns a 9-1 record as a starter, which is the best record as a first-year starter in school history. Plummer has thrown for at least 240 yards and at least one touchdown in seven of his first ten games at Louisville after throwing for 243 yards and two touchdowns against Virginia.

He’s completed 70 percent or better of his throws in four of the first ten games after completing 91.7 percent versus Virginia Tech— his first win over the Irish after two losses prior in his career.

The 6-foot-5 signal caller ranks 48th in the nation in total offense with an average of 243.2 yards per game and is 24th in passing efficiency. Plummer is second in the FBS with three passes, gaining 70 or more yards, and 10th with 20 passes, gaining 30 or more yards. Eleven of Plummer’s 16 touchdown passes have gone for over 20 yards.

Plummer accounted for six touchdowns in Louisville’s 56-28 win vs. Boston College, passing for five and running for another.

He recorded his third multi-touchdown passing game with two touchdown throws versus Virginia.


Ashton Gillotte, Defensive End

Through the first ten games, Ashton Gillotte has 37 tackles, 13 for loss, and leads in the ACC with three forced fumbles. He moved up to sixth nationally in sacks after recording 1.5 against Virginia, which gave him a career-high ten this season. He recorded a pair of sacks in the win over Duke — his second game with two or more sacks this year.

The native of Boca Raton, Fla., recorded a career-high 3.0 sacks in the 56-28 win over BC.

His 13 tackles for loss lead the team, and he was recently named a Midseason All-American by CBSSports and Pro Football Weekly.

In his first four seasons, Gillotte has recorded 78 tackles and 20.0 sacks in his first 34 games as a defensive lineman.

He has recorded nine sacks at home and just one in road games.


TJ Quinn, Linebacker

Quinn is the team’s top tackler through ten games, totaling 72 tackles after recording a career-high 12 tackles in the loss to Pitt and 11 against NC State. Quinn had three straight double-digit tackle games before breaking it with seven tackles in the win over Duke.

Quinn ranks 86th nationally and ninth in the ACC, with an average of 7.2 tackles per game.


Devin Neal, Safety

A transfer from Baylor, Neal has started nine games, is third on the team in tackles with 51, and has 2.5 tackles for loss. In the win over Virginia, Neal had his fourth interception of the season and a pass breakup. He is third in the ACC and ranks 33rd nationally with three interceptions.

In the win over Notre Dame, Neal intercepted two passes with eight tackles, 0.5 for loss, and a pass breakup.

Last season with the Bears, Neal totaled 41 tackles, 2.0 tackles for loss, and registered two interceptions in 11 games.


Note: Louisville has 15 players from the state of Florida, including nine from the Tri-County area of Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach County.

What to Watch For

Will it be redemption for TVD?

Tyler Van Dyke is back as the starter and in the spotlight for the Miami Hurricanes. After being benched for true freshman Emory Williams last week, Van Dyke has a chance to prove why there was no question who the Miami signal-caller would be at the beginning of the season, with the freshman now out for the season with an arm injury.

Van Dyke has thrown 11 interceptions and lost two fumbles in his last five game appearances; Miami is 1-4 in those games. According to Pro Football Focus, the NC State game was by far the worst of his appearances, scoring a 42 passing grade. Against the Wolfpack, he threw three interceptions, lost a fumble, and completed 55.3 percent of his passes.

Louisville ranks first in scoring defense, second in rushing defense, and seventh in passing defense in the ACC, all higher than NC State, which ranks fourth, third, and eighth in those categories.

Van Dyke does not have to be spectacular in this game, just average. Miami's defense has shown that they can put the team in a position to win games, and a zero-turnover game from TVD would be a huge win for Miami. If Miami has any shot at pulling off the upset, Van Dyke has to protect the football at all costs.

He also needs to convert on third down by running with the football. Louisville holds its opponents to a 27.8 conversion percentage (third in ACC behind Florida State - 27.7 and NC State - 27.2).

Shannon Dawson needs to show creativity in play-calling

It will be interesting to see how offensive coordinator Shannon Dawson manages the game. As stated, Van Dyke has been turnover-prone as of late, and he faces a Louisville defense that ranks +6 in turnover margin, good for 21st in the country.

We've seen many bubble screens and runs up the middle this season, and that likely will not work against this defense. It will be interesting to see if Dawson takes shots down the field with a shaken quarterback.

We have seen some creativity this season from Dawson, with lining up wide receivers Xavier Restrepo and Brashard Smith in the backfield, but the fan base wants more.

Against NC State, Miami ran it up the middle on 4th and short with the game on the line. Running back Mark Fletcher was stopped short, and the Wolfpack scored on the ensuing drive. The play was ultimately the turning point in the game, and many wish we would have seen some creativity inside the opponent's five-yard line.

It would be a breath of fresh air if we see athletic backup quarterback Jacurri Brown in short-yardage situations or at least serve as a decoy.

This needs to be Dawson's best game as a play-caller because just lining it up, running it up the middle, and throwing short passes will not work against the Cardinals.

Miami averages six yards per play, and Louisville allows 4.9 per play.

Big plays can't be huge plays 

As stated, Louisville has hit some big plays this year. Miami has played great on defense, ranking 20th in the country in total defense, but it has sometimes given up the big play.

Last week, Trey Benson's 38-yard run was ultimately the difference in the game in the loss to FSU. Against NC State, a missed tackle by James Williams eventually led to a 31-touchdown by the Wolfpack's Raphael Kendrick, which put the game out of reach.

Against UNC, Miami gave up 56 and 33-yard touchdown passes to Devontez Walker.

If Miami can prevent the big-play touchdown and hold the Cardinals to field goals, it will be very challenging to beat the Hurricanes.

Outcome

This game will come down to which team makes the least mistakes, and I think Plummer has yet to experience the caliber of pressure that he will see against the Hurricanes.

Both teams are fierce when it comes to creating pressure. According to Pro Football Focus, Miami ranks 10th, and Louisville is 12th in the country when creating pressure.

Louisville beat an up-and-down 7-3 Notre Dame team this season, so the ceiling is high, but the loss to Pitt obviously shows how to beat the Cardinals.

Miami has been battle-tested more with games against UNC and Florida State; the Hurricanes, however, lack a signature win. If TVD takes care of the football, the Hurricanes should get that win on Saturday.

Talk with Miami fans on Canes Talk, Inside Canes Hoops, and Canes on the Diamond

• Subscribe to the Storm Tracker Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, SoundCloud, and Spotify

• Subscribe to the Canes County YouTube Channel

• Follow us on Twitter: @Canes_County, @BenjaminRivals, @TheCribSouthFLA, @AnthonyYero1, and @MichaelYero

• Follow us on Instagram: @Canes.County

Follow us on Facebook