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Published Sep 9, 2023
Miami Football Game Preview: Week Two vs Texas A&M
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Frank Tucker  â€¢  CanesCounty
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Miami kicked off the season with a 35-point victory against a solid 'Group of Five' opponent in Miami (OH). A different beast will be opposite the Canes this weekend when they play the 23rd-ranked team in the country, Texas A&M.

Here is what you should expect going into the game this weekend.

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How to Watch

When: Saturday, September 9th

Time: 3:30 PM

Where to Watch: ESPN/WatchESPN

Game Odds

Line: Texas A&M -4.5

Over/Under: 51.5

Moneyline: Miami +150; Texas A&M -185

Game Trends

- Both teams covered in Week 1

- Miami is 7-7 ATS in its last 14 games

- Texas A&M went OVER the total by itself in a 52-10 win against New Mexico (Over 49.5)

- Miami went UNDER in its opener against Miami (Ohio), 38-3 final (45)

- Texas A&M won and covered at home against Miami last season, 17-9 (-6.5)

What to Watch For

Will Miami Bounce Back from a Rough 2022 Offensive Performance vs Texas A&M?

It is well documented that Miami struggled in virtually every game against a team with a pulse last season under obviously over-his-head offensive coordinator Josh Gattis. He started similar to new play caller Shannon Dawson, but with so many new pieces, a healthy offensive line, and a return to a more wide-open offensive scheme is expected to bring out the best in quarterback Tyler Van Dyke.

Nothing was more telling of Miami's offensive struggles last season than not scoring a single touchdown against A&M in the previous season. One score could have either decided or tied the game finished with a final 17-9 score. Van Dyke barely completed 50 percent of his throws and, outside of an Elijah Arroyo 29-yard reception, had no chunk plays of 25-yards or more. Failing to take advantage of 175 yards on the ground was disappointing.

Last week, Miami showed they have four running backs that can be difference makers and totaled 250 yards on the ground. This offensive line is a significant upgrade from 2022, and it showed as they bullied a Miami (OH) front seven. A&M features a former blue-chip prospect at almost every spot on the defensive line and their immediate backups, so this will be much more of a challenge.

Big plays, like Colbie Young's 44-yard score last week, and taking more shots, which Dawson hinted at with the media, should be part of the game plan. The Aggies lost multiple core members of their defensive backfield from last year - like safety Antonio Johnson. Miami will have to take advantage of some talented but inexperienced members of the backend of that defense.

Can Miami Bring Texas A&M Quarterback Conner Weigman Back Down to Earth?

Yes, it was New Mexico, but Texas A&M quarterback Conner Weigman looked like a guy who should have been ranked as the top dual-threat quarterback in the country. The sophomore playmaker had as many touchdowns as incompletions against the Lobos and even added yards on the ground, rushing for 31 on three carries.

He came out of the weekend as one of the highest-rated quarterbacks in the country and brimming with confidence coming into this huge game. It is not the first time he has performed well, though. Last season, through the final five games, he did not throw a single interception and had solid performances against LSU (176 yards, two touchdowns) and Ole Miss (342 yards, four touchdowns).

Miami showed last week they are taking a different approach to productive quarterbacks. Defensive coordinator Lance Guidry held Miami (OH)'s Brett Gabbert to 127 yards passing and kept him in the pocket, allowing a long run of just six yards. In his last full season, he passed for 26 touchdowns, and Miami ultimately kept him out of the endzone.

There will need to be more of the same this week, as A&M offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino predicates his offense based on the passing game - evidenced by just 123 yards rushing from his running backs last week with not a single player over 51 yards.

Will the Run Game Continue to Thrive?

Miami rushed for 250 or more yards just one time last season, and it was against FCS opponent Bethune-Cookman in the opening week. The fact that Miami was able to gash a team that ranked first in their conference in run defense last year tells of the balance Dawson will bring to his offense this season.

Three backs averaged over five yards per carry, and Don Chaney was close behind at 4.8. Every running back that received a carry had over 38 yards, and Chaney, Henry Parrish, and Mark Fletcher all had 20-plus yard runs.

That is efficiency, productivity, and a mentality shift from 2022. The talent is exceptional from this foursome of ball carriers. Fletcher looks like a potential starter as a true freshman after running for 76 yards and scoring in his first game. Parrish is so solid and once again led Miami in rushing. Chaney looks finally healthy with a burst - which could be significant in a complementary role. Nebraska transfer Ajay Allen is what Miami was looking for in former rushing leader Jaylan Knighton.

New Mexico had some success on the ground against Texas A&M, rushing for over 120 yards and a touchdown. The likes of defensive tackle Walter Nolan will be brutal to push around, but Miami proved even last year in an inept scheme that there is success to be had on the ground.

Big plays in the passing game will be huge, but controlling the clock, field possession, and the energy of a game that should be one of the biggest of the year will be played via the running game, and Miami will need to mirror its week one success.

Who Will Step Up Outside of Colby Young at Wide Receiver?

The Miami passing game was not nearly as prolific as many had hoped after learning of Dawson's new 'Air Raid' attack, but there were positives. Colbie Young showed once again why he is WR1 for Miami, collecting four receptions for 79 yards and a 44-yard touchdown in a game where the offense threw just 25 total passes between both Van Dyke and true freshman Emory Williams.

Xavier Restrepo and Jacolby George had decent performances, combining for 11 receptions and 124 yards. Still, George averaged less than 10 yards per reception, which means more is needed against the likes of Miami (OH).

They were not the glaring issue, though. Getting absolutely nothing out of the rest of the wide receiver room is a problem that seems to stem from last season. Miami brought in Shemar Kirk and Tyler Harrell and got just 14 yards from them. Isaiah Horton was expected to compete for the outside role and had just one reception for five yards - not going to cut it.

Both Kirk and Harrell have to prove they have the big play ability that got people excited about their additions, and if Horton and Brashard Smith continue to be spectators, it may be time to include freshmen Nathaniel Joseph and Robby Washington more in the biggest first game of their college careers.

Do Not Allow Big Emotional Homecoming Performances from Daniels and Stewart

Two of South Florida's best, running back Amari Daniels and defensive lineman Shemar Stewart, chose College Station for their home and are key players for the Aggies in Saturday's game. Daniels led the team in rushing last week and looks like a potential breakout player for 2023. Stewart is a former five-star prospect and, while he may not be starting, was one of the snap leaders from the defense last week.

This is the first game back in South Florida for both players, and the emotions will be running high as they look to make statement performances against the hometown school. Miami will have to key on both players, as they have the potential to change the course of what this game could look like.

Stewart had one of his best career games against Miami last year. He had five tackles in the close matchup, proving he is at his best when there is some added motivation. Last week, he scored high in pass rush (74.3) and run defense (70.9), indicating he may be making a sophomore jump among a talented defensive line group. Reports surfaced that Stewart spearheaded to play Miami's fight song at A&M's practice. He will be up for this one.

Weigman and star wide receiver Evan Stewart are the biggest names for the Aggies offense, but Daniels could be the X-factor. He is finally taking the reigns as the top dog in the backfield and has a chance to make something happen after playing just three snaps behind third-round draft pick Devon Achane. He averaged 7.3 yards per carry last week and looks to have retooled entirely his body. Miami cannot let him pull a Dalvin Cook this week.

Outcome

This is a fork-in-the-road type game for head coach Mario Cristobal. You can argue a win here would be his first signature performance in his year and two games back home. Just from the scope of splitting the two years and gaining an advantage in several recruiting battles would be so significant for Miami, who has the potential to go on a colossal recruiting run in the final stretch of 2024.

Texas A&M has a lot of talent thanks to top recruiting classes annually since the arrival of head coach Jimbo Fisher. Now they have two top coordinators, Petrino, and defensive coordinator DJ Durkin, to unleash the potential of that talent. Judging off the final five games of 2022 and last week against New Mexico, Weigman could be a problem for Miami if they fall into recent habits where they allowed mobile passers to live up to the highest of their playmaking abilities.

Both these teams are in similar spots, coming off 5-7 seasons with high-level talent on both sides of the ball and head coaches nearing hot-seat status. Miami offensive coordinator Dawson will earn his money this week in a potential redemption game from last year's 17-9 loss.

If TVD can be the TVD of old, this run game can continue to shine, and the pressure of Miami's front seven continues to get home; I think Miami could make their first appearance in the top 25 next week after a win over a ranked SEC opponent.

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